David Deutsch. The Beginning Of Infinity: Explanations That Transform The World.  (2011)

In a paragraph

Knowledge proceeds by creating good explanations and improving them through conjectures and criticism.  Rapid creation of knowledge took off with the Enlightenment and from the approach that all knowledge is fallible and capable of improvement.  Generation of knowledge makes humanity significant, and may be an infinite process.  

Key points

• Knowledge proceeds by a continuous process of improving explanations through conjectures, criticism, reasoning and testing.

• A good explanation is one which is hard to vary, such as explaining seasons by the tilt of the earth rather than by the myth of Persephone. It may have reach beyond its original context.

• Rapid creation of knowledge took off with the Enlightenment approach of seeking knowledge and progress through finding good explanations and being open to criticism rather than relying on authority.

• Knowledge is information with causal power.  First biology, then human knowledge. Explanatory knowledge, understanding.

• Human generation of knowledge makes us significant in the cosmos. We can exceed the parochial knowledge produced by evolution. We may be at the start of an infinite process. It is the human superpower.

• The universe was boring, then creativity happened.  Knowledge allowed small things to control large things.  Spaceship Earth is not hospitable without knowledge.  Chemical Scum is special.

• All our knowledge is fallible. We should expect even our best and most fundamental explanations to contain misconceptions in addition to truth and aim to improve them.

• The Principle of Optimism is that all problems are caused by lack of knowledge. Cholera victims died as they did not know to boil water. The optimist thinks progress is possible and desirable.  The pessimistic considers the risks of trying to improve exceed the benefits.

Comments

A very impressive book, full of ideas, a fascinating combining of elements from science and philosophy.

The main theme is knowledge as explanations.  Popper’s view of science as ‘conjecture and refutation’, is developed with Deutsch’s view that a good explanation is hard to vary. Deutsch then goes on to show the central importance of fallibilism as welcoming criticism and the distinctiveness of the optimistic view of the possibility of progress.  He suggests that the human creation of knowledge is potentially infinite and makes us special in the cosmos.

The case made for good explanations, fallibilism and progress is clear and convincing.  I recommend the first chapter as a fine summary, and the discussion is further supported by several of the later chapters including an exceptional one written as a Socratic dialogue.  The book also includes much other material, including a discussion of the nature of infinity using the model of Infinity Hotel and an exposition of the Multiverse Interpretation of Quantum theory starting from an idea from Star Trek.

Deutsch is very optimistic about the possibilities of progress.  This may reflect his background in physics, where progress is easier to see, while social sciences and practical reason often find it harder to reach definitive conclusions.  

The book is well written, although some chapters are demanding without knowledge of physics and philosophy.    The book presents an impressive if slightly idiosyncratic world view that clearly reflects a lifetime of thinking about science and philosophy.  It is fascinating, and very worth reading.

Links

Excellent David Deutsch TED interview with Chris Anderson with useful introduction. 

Notes

Enlightenment – pursuing knowledge with a tradition of criticism and seeking good explanations instead of reliance on authority. A rebellion against authority. The beginning of the rapid creation of knowledge

Explanation-based conception of science.  Explanations are created from conjectures, thinking, criticism and testing. The real source of our knowledge is conjecture alternating with criticism. A potentially infinite process.

A problem is where we experience competing ideas. We are born with ideas, and the ability to make progress by changing them. Add to existing ideas with the intention of improving them. Actively pursuing error correction.

Empiricism was wrong but a great step away from authority. Inductivism is wrong.  Explanations are not about experienced regularities or predictions.  We know from our explanations when the future will not resemble the past.  Justificationism wrong.  Knowledge not justified from authority.

Fallibilism.  Fallibilists expect even their best and most fundamental explanations to contain misconceptions in addition to truth and so they are predisposed to try to change them for the better.

Compare explaining the seasons by the myth of Persephone or the tilt of the earth’s axis.

A good explanation is hard to vary. Constrained by existing knowledge.  It is only when a theory is a good explanation that it even matters whether it is testable.  Reach of explanations beyond their intended purpose.

Anthropocentric approach has never yielded any good explanations beyond human affairs.  Radically different character of ancient explanations.

Stephen Hawkins: humans are just a chemical scum on the surface of a typical planet. Principle of Mediocrity. Wrong, as people are significant in the cosmic scheme of things.

Spaceship Earth.  Wrong as people support themselves by creating knowledge.

Problems are inevitable but soluble.

Everything that is not forbidden by laws of nature is achievable, given the right knowledge

That progress is both possible and desirable is perhaps the quintessential idea of the Enlightenment.

Thinks human knowledge generation potential infinite and not limited by our parochial roots. A power to transform nature which is ultimately not limited by parochial factors.

The cosmic significance of explanatory knowledge and hence of people.

Biological evolution creates knowledge, but knowledge that is bounded and parochial. Both evolution and thought create through error-correcting processes.

The central idea of neo-Darwinism is that evolution favours the genes that spread best through the population. Early nesting good for individual, not for population.

Genes and ideas are both replicators; knowledge and adaptions are both hard to vary.

The jump to universality. The only way to emancipate arithmetic from tallying is with rules of universal reach. Positional system with placeholders.

Universal classical computer. Quantum computers, at a higher level of universality. Analogue left behind as digital has error correction.

Hilbert’s thought experiment of Infinity Hotel.

Cantor: infinitely many levels of infinity starting from infinity of the natural numbers then infinity of the continuum.

The danger that newly created knowledge would have catastrophic consequences. Our future will be shaped by knowledge that we do not yet have. Prediction and prophecy.

Cholera victims died from lack of knowledge.

The answer is basically the same for human decision-making as it is for science: it requires a tradition of criticism, in which good explanations are sought – for example, explanations of what has gone wrong, what would be better.  Wise action.

The Principle of Optimism.  All evils are caused by insufficient knowledge. A pessimistic civilization thinks the dangers of trying new things exceeds the benefits.  Conformity.

Local enlightenments in Athens and Florence.  Became unexceptional when optimism went.  Athens v Sparta. Savonarola.  Bonfire of the Vanities.

A Dream of Socrates

Dialogue with Hermes in dream, then Plato and others, then comments.  Impressive.

Nothing more boring than to be perfectly secure in one’s beliefs. To discover the truth of how the world is, and why – and, even more, of how it should be.

Beliefs can only be justified in relation to other beliefs and, even then, only fallibly.  The quest for justification leads to an infinite regress.

Spartans hold their most important ideas immune to criticism.  Not to be open to suggestions.  Not to seek the truth because they claim they already have it.

Xenophanes: horses would draw their gods like horses

All is but a woven web of guesses.  Always bear human fallibility in mind. When we hear something being said, we guess what it means. Guesswork isn’t knowledge. Imprisoned in a cave, guessing. We test our guesses against everything we can think of. What we understand we then control, like gods. Athens seek improvement, Sparta stasis. Athens is set up to accommodate rival ideas.

We have moderated the destructiveness of democracy through traditions of virtue, tolerance and liberty. I judge a city by how it treats its philosophers. Justified belief is impossible. I can never be sure of anything due to fallibility of human mind and unreliability of senses.

Rather than make a permanent record of all my misconceptions as they are at a particular instant, I would rather offer them to others in a two-way debate.

We don’t need to see the original work of scientists as their theories speak for themselves and their work struggled with obsolete problems from earlier misconceptions. [In social sciences more is open to interpretation and context, so writers’ biographies are relevant.]

The Multiverse

Startrek. Doppelganger. Sliding doors. Information flows with twilight zone. There is a field (waves) in the multiverse for every individual particle that we observe in a particular universe. For larger objects, interference is supressed by entanglement.

Bad philosophy is false, and prevents knowledge growth. Can be countered by progress. Copenhagen Interpretation.  Niels Bohr’s combination of instrumentalism, anthropocentrism and studied ambiguity, used to avoid understanding quantum theory as being about reality.

Positivism. Everything not ‘derived from observation’ should be eliminated from science.  Includes behaviourism.  Logical positivism.  Everything not derived from observation is meaningless. Bad philosophy became much worse with the descent from empiricism to positivism, logical positivism, instrumentalism, Wittgenstein, linguistic philosophy and postmodernism.

Human life can be improved without limit as we improve from misconception to better misconception. Social Choice Theory, eg Arrow, ignore the most important element of decision-making namely the creation of new options. Ideas are not outweighed but out argued. Criticism of PR and coalitions as ability to remove bad rulers and policies central.   Voters create their own explanation for their vote.

Western civilization is in an unstable transition between stable, static societies consisting of anti-rational memes and a stable dynamic society consisting of rational memes.

Jacob Bronowski The Ascent Of Man. Compare his positive view of Easter Island with Attenborough. Sustain – to provide what is needed or not to change. Need to create knowledge and wealth rapidly to avoid catastrophe

Optimism incompatible with conceit that our knowledge is nearly there.

While differing widely in the various little bits we know, in our infinite ignorance we are all equal.